(19/05/06) Montenegro Campaign Ends on High Note (Balkan Insight)

• 2006-05-23
• Europa in de wereld

As referendum campaign climaxes, even pop singers have been brought in to swing last undecided voters.

By Nedjeljko Rudovic in Podgorica (Balkan Insight, 18 May 06)

"No one will give us statehood unless we fight and win it for

ourselves," a young man shouted at a group of reporters and passers-by in a square in Niksic, the second biggest town in Montenegro.

"This is our last chance," he continued, from his perch on the

passenger seat of a decrepit old white car, from which he waved a crimson red Montenegrin flag with golden-yellow coat of arms in the middle. "We won't let Serbia tutor us anymore."

The white car led a convoy of about ten others, each festooned with banners and flags, blaring horns and cruising the streets of Niksic on the eve of a pro-independence rally that attracted about 30,000 supporters.

On May 21, voters in Montenegro will respond with a Yes or a No to the question, "Do you want Montenegro to be an independent state with full international and legal legitimacy?"

It will be a day of judgement for the fragile state union with Serbia that only came into being under strong pressure from Brussels in 2002.

It will be a day of judgment, too, for Montenegro's prime minister, Milo Djukanovic, who has led the ruling coalition, comprising his own Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS, the Social Democrat Party, SDP and representatives of Albanian minority, towards separation since the mid-Nineties.

After Montenegro joined the state union, Djukanovic had to postpone a referendum on independence for three years - a condition imposed on Podgorica by the European Union.

After the time limit expired, on March 3, he called a referendum under EU-brokered terms that were also endorsed by the pro-union opposition.

Slobodan, aged 50, a worker at the Niksic steel company, said he was clear he wanted ties with Serbia to remain as they were.

He cited historic and cultural links, shared language and a shared faith as the main reasons why he doesn't want Montenegro to break away.

"We are the same nation, speak the same language, practice the same Serb Orthodox religion and have the same customs as the Serbs in Serbia," he said. "Why divide ourselves except to please Djukanovic and allow him to make his own private state?"

Slobodan quickly vacated the town square to the pro independence supporters in order to go back home to the Niksic suburb of Dragova Luka.

He did not want his presence to contribute to the impression of a large turn-out by independence supporters in their rally.

The two sides have staged rallies in more than 21 Montenegrin

municipalities so far. The unionists, defending the state union, have not waved official red-and-gold Montenegrin flags but the tricolour of the state union.

Unlike the young independence supporter from Niksic, who wore a T-shirt emblazoned with the word "Yes", unionist T-shirts proclaim sentences such as "My final answer is NO".

Some unionists at rallies donned T-shirts bearing images of the two prominent Hague war crime suspects Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic. They sing traditional Serbian songs, chanting such slogans as, "This is not Montenegro, but a heroic Serb stronghold."

One of their songs runs, "No, I don't want to split/We're two in one, a perfect fit/ Like the sun and the sea/Like you and me!"

Montenegrin television gives them little airtime, preferring to

broadcast newly penned pop songs that glorify Montenegro and implicitly urge citizens to support independence.

One, sung by Slaven Knezevic, a popular musician, celebrates the future Montenegrin state. "May your sun shine forever, my one and only land," it runs. "Be brave, be proud and guard your glory won over centuries, my one and only land…"

The squares of Montenegro's towns and cities are covered with posters advocating Montenegrin sovereignty. The main message is to vote "For the Montenegro we love". On them, famous public figures and sports personalities urge the people to vote for independence.

In Cetinje, the splendid old Montenegrin capital, built at the foot of Mt Lovcen, the prevailing mood is pro-independence.

"I want to restore the Montenegrin statehood that was brutally

abolished in 1918 by the Serbian army, which occupied Montenegro after the First World War," said Nikola, a waiter.

"I owe it my great-grandfather who gave his life for this state. I do not hate Serbia. I just want us to rule our land," he added, tears welling in his eyes.

While representatives of the two opposing camps in Montenegro respectively reassure their supporters that they will win, the outcome remains uncertain.

The pro-independence camp needs to win 55 per cent of the vote before it can declare Montenegro's independence - this being the threshold set by the EU. A simple majority will not suffice.

But most recent opinion polls give the champions of independence only a narrow lead, with the support of between 52 and 57 per cent of the electorate. There are about 485,000 registered voters in Montenegro, a country with a population of about 650,000.

As voter turnout is expected to exceed 85 per cent, the

pro-independence camp needs to net about 40,000 more votes than its rivals, or ten per cent, to achieve its goal.

The independence bloc, nevertheless, is optimistic. Its leader,

Djukanovic, says a comfortable majority of voters will cast ballots for independence.

"As I announced at the beginning of the campaign, we are approaching a majority of 60 per cent," he said earlier this week.

Their pro-union rivals, comprising the Socialist People's Party, SNP, the Serbian People's Party, SNS, the Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, and the People's Party, NS, are equally certain they will prevail.

"There are more than enough of us this time to say No," Andrija Mandic, head of the SNS, said at a convention in Niksic recently.

The opposition leader, Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the SNP, warned that May 21 was not only a choice about independence.

"This is not a decision about Montenegro's sovereignty but a decision about whether Montenegro will become Djukanovic's private state," he said in a televised duel with the prime minister on May 16.

His supporters in Kolasin, a tourist resort in the north, surrounded by the Bjelasnica mountain, agree.

They fear a new state border will jeopardise family ties and access to schools and medical assistance over in Serbia.

Milorad, 25, a civil servant in Kolasin, said he could not imagine Montenegro as an independent state.

"Apart from our historic ties with Serbia, we need to bear in mind that 90 per cent of winter visitors come from Serbia as do over 60 per cent in the summer," he said.

Milorad pointed out that many Montenegrin companies, such as the Niksic brewery, sold most of their products to Serbia and that many Montenegrins had close relatives there. "Why should we then introduce state borders?" he asked, sipping a coffee in one of many cafes.

To dispel the fear that new international borders will divide families and friends in frontier areas, the pro-independence supporters have stressed that an independent Montenegro would maintain open borders, encouraging a free flow of people, goods and capital, especially with Serbia.

"Relations with Serbia will certainly conform to European Union standards," Montenegro's president, Filip Vujanovic, said last week.

"My wish would be that our relations meet much higher standards, which should be an imperative due to the closeness of these two countries."

The president said there was no danger of Montenegro and Serbia parting ways after the vote. Instead, he said, like two brothers, they would live side by side, in their respective homes.

Nedjeljko Rudovic a is journalist with the Podgorica daily Vijesti. Balkan Inisght is BIRN's online publication.